Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Maverick Comeback?
Patrick Ruffini's analyis of a possible John McCain comeback -- at least in New Hampshire -- isn't completely off the mark.
In much the same way that a Huckabee surge in Iowa potentially hurts Romney, a McCain surge in NH can do the same to Rudy Giuliani. Remember that a second-place win in New Hampshire was spun by Bill Clinton as a "comeback kid" win. Speaking of surges, McCain's steadfast support for the war -- and the fact that the Iraq surge has quote-worked-unquote -- may actually redound to his favor. The few remaining "Bush Republicans" that are strong supporters of the Iraq effort can still "reward" the mission's most prominent public backer.
Meanwhile, if Obama and Hillary continue to tear each other apart, the independents in New Hampshire may decide that they don't want to vote in the Democratic primary after all.
None of this means that McCain has anything close to a clear shot at the nomination: His money problems still remain -- particularly in comparison to Giuliani and Romney's bank accounts. However, it's not out of the question that a well-spun "win" in New Hampshire could allow McCain to hang around a bit longer than people think.
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In much the same way that a Huckabee surge in Iowa potentially hurts Romney, a McCain surge in NH can do the same to Rudy Giuliani. Remember that a second-place win in New Hampshire was spun by Bill Clinton as a "comeback kid" win. Speaking of surges, McCain's steadfast support for the war -- and the fact that the Iraq surge has quote-worked-unquote -- may actually redound to his favor. The few remaining "Bush Republicans" that are strong supporters of the Iraq effort can still "reward" the mission's most prominent public backer.
Meanwhile, if Obama and Hillary continue to tear each other apart, the independents in New Hampshire may decide that they don't want to vote in the Democratic primary after all.
None of this means that McCain has anything close to a clear shot at the nomination: His money problems still remain -- particularly in comparison to Giuliani and Romney's bank accounts. However, it's not out of the question that a well-spun "win" in New Hampshire could allow McCain to hang around a bit longer than people think.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, John McCain
