Thursday, January 03, 2008


Iowa Predictions

Orders of Finish:


Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
John McCain
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Rudy Giuliani
Duncan Hunter

My initial hunch was that Thompson would finish third -- and thus take critical support away from Huckabee. However, a leak the day before the caucuses -- that Thompson is likely to drop out after Iowa and endorse McCain -- doesn't happen by accident. The news will likely depress any support that may have been building late for Thompson in recent days. It's enough for McCain to finish third and Ron Paul to make some real waves.


Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Bill Richardson

(Democrats 15 percent ceiling obviates the need to list the also-rans).

Bonus wild-card prediction: On Super Tuesday, February 5th, Rudy Giuliani won't win any states other than New York and New Jersey.

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