Wednesday, February 20, 2008


Bubbas For The Bro

Ho-hum. Another primary, another Obama blow-out. Even the AP is getting bored by the Democratic nomination process:

Barack Obama cruised past a fading Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday night, gaining the upper hand in a Democratic presidential race for the ages.
It was Obama's ninth straight victory over the past three weeks - with results unknown from the Hawaii caucuses - and left the former first lady in desperate need of a comeback in a race she long commanded as front-runner.
"The change we seek is still months and miles away," Obama told a boisterous crowd in Houston in a speech in which he also pledged to end the war in Iraq in his first year in office.
"I opposed this war in 2002. I will bring this war to an end in 2009. It is time to bring our troops home," he declared.
"Fading" -- hardly an uplifting phrase for the former first lady, but pretty apt after the 9-0 nightmare Hillary Rodham Clinton has experienced in the two weeks (only two weeks!) since Super Tuesday.

Especially disappointing is this number -- 62 percent:

[Obama] did very well among white men with 62% of their vote to Clinton's 36%. Remember those Edwards voters? At least among white men, it looks like at least some of them are going for Obama. Clinton, though, still took a plurality of white women (53%-45%).

Obama also made inroads with one core constituency of Clinton's: white working-class voters (households making under $50k/yr). Clinton still edged him out 51% to 48%, but Obama had a strong showing. He won white households making more than $50k/yr -- 56% to 48%.
Obama increased the strong numbers among white men that he started registering last week in Maryland and Virginia. White guys -- well, white Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent guys -- seem to be very comfortable voting for the black guy in the race rather than the woman. Whether that is sexist or just a judgment on this woman is open to debate. What is clear, however, there's no way Hillary can overcome the sort of expanding coalition Obama is creating if she only beats him by three points among her supposed base, white women.

This is currently a prediction-free blog, but given that large parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania mirror Wisconsin, Barack Obama has to feel increasingly confident of his chances in those states over the next several weeks.

UPDATE: It's a perfect 10-0 run for Obama with his landslide win in his "third" home-state win in Hawaii. Obviously, this is the key to winning a nomination -- make sure you can make plausible relationship/residence connections to lots of places (Obama also won in Kansas and Illinois). On the other hand, Mitt Romney was 3-0 in Utah, Michigan and Massachusetts and that didn't work out so well in the long run...

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