Wednesday, February 06, 2008


Super Tuesday Scoreboard

Clinton (8 states): Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee (plus American Samoa)

Obama (12): Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah

McCain (9): Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma

Huckabee (5): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia

Romney (7): Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah

McCain's wipeout of Romney in California is likely the nail in the coffin for the former Massachusetts governor. But there's no reason why Mike Huckabee shouldn't push for a spot on the ticket. He won solidly Republican states while McCain's greatest strength was in states that he will have difficulty carrying in November (though Missouri is a significant win). Meanwhile,winning the Golden State (to go along with her own New York and New Jersey) -- with a huge share of the Latino vote, a feat she replicated elsewhere -- definitely gives Hillary Rodham Clinton some bragging rights in terms of the big states.

However, Obama's strength in "purple" states like Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado can't be overestimated -- to say nothing of red, heavily white-population states. Furthermore, Obama won the most states of the night. The Democrats are going to be tussling for quite awhile.

*New Mexico not called as of 2:30 AM.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall readers discuss the racial voting patterns in states where Obama won:

First, TPM Reader JS ...
Just a quick trend to note: Obama seems to do well in states where
there are either a huge number of black voters or virtually no black voters at all. In states with large urban populations, and ethnic suburban populations, he doesn't do as well. He also doesn't do as well in interior southern states. In other words, either a state needs to have white voters who have very little experience with ethnic or racial politics, or it needs to have an extremely large black population, in order to vote for Obama.
This should, sadly, not come as a surprise. While the Obama campaign was infuriated by Bill Clinton's dismissive statement that Obama won South Carolina -- like Jesse Jackson -- the fact is that this racial pattern was first noticed during the '88 Jackson campaign. Jackson's highest share of the white vote was in states that had very small black populations -- like Vermont and Alaska. Plus ca la change, plus ca la meme.

UPDATE II: Obama apparently won the day in delegates!

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