Tuesday, November 06, 2012

 

Election Day!!

So, The New York Times endorsed Obama (duh!), The Post went with Romney (duh!); the Daily News announced for Romney (surprise!). And now, it all comes down to the public (obviously, in many states they've been voting for days.

Anyway, no endorsements on this page as my political blogging has been de minimus this year. More in 2013? Stay tuned.

In any event, here's how I see the states playing out when all the votes are counted today -- or tomorrow; or next week; or December (hey, Mercury's retrograde -- just like in 2000)!!

I used the very nice American Research Group electoral calculator which uses the 2008 Electoral College result as a baseline. I then used the aggregate of most recent polls to decide whether to keep a 2008 Obama state in the same column or move it over to Romney.

I then did two scenarios -- what I feel is the most likely outcome and the everything-but-kitchen-sink possibility raised by possible late moves in states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

Bottom line: In both scenarios, I have Barack Obama winning re-election.  For me, the state that actually turns out to be pivotal is not Ohio. The state that may actually cause Mitt Romney grief is Virginia.

LIKELIEST scenario is Obama with 303 electoral votes (vs. 235 for Gov. Romney). In that, Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, but Obama sweeps the other swing states including Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and Paul Ryan's Wisconsin.

In the ALTERNATE scenario:   Obama wins the almost-barest minimum Electoral College victory -- 271-267. There, Romney gets Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and -- wild card -- Minnesota. Obama, however, holds the previously mentioned swing states (save OH and NH). While many people are forecasting Romney grabbing Colorado back from the Democrats, I think the Latino undercount (which played out in Sen. Michael Bennett's 2010 victory) will play a part in keeping this in Obama's column.

So, that's it. Of course, if I'm wrong on, say, Colorado in the ALTERNATE scenario, Mitt Romney is the next president. However, I feel confident in saying this: Look at New Hampshire and Virginia: If Romney wins both, this could be a very long night (possibly week). If the president wins both, it will be a fairly early and good week for him (if not necessarily for nearly half the country).

Do your duty, my fellow citizens and cast your ballots!!

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