Friday, October 10, 2008
25 Days Out -- Polls & Palin Problems
The left-leaning FiveThirtyEight and the right-leaning Real Clear Politics have similar projections on the electoral landscape.
FiveThirtyEight puts Obama at 348 electoral votes, McCain at 189; RCP has it Obama 277, McCain 158 (with 103 "toss-ups").
Even Fox News' poll gives Obama a 46-39 edge. Thirty-nine!! How can John McCain be polling at 39 percent in any poll!??! (Though, if memory serves, George H.W. Bush lost in '92 with 38 percent -- albeit in a three-way contest).
And, finally, it's a Friday evening and you know what that means -- time for bad political news to break. Unfortuntely (for the GOP), I don't think this story that will be "buried" over the weekend. There will be lots of back-and-forth on this development in the coming days, but one thing can't be argued: The Sarah Palin pick violated the first rule of vice-presidential selections: "First do no harm." Phrases like "abuse of power" don't sit too well a month out from an election.
Well, even though my overarching reason was more personal than political, I'm glad I elected not to be part of the conservative herd that rushed to coronate (or was it "consecrate"?) Sarah Palin as the love child of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
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FiveThirtyEight puts Obama at 348 electoral votes, McCain at 189; RCP has it Obama 277, McCain 158 (with 103 "toss-ups").
Even Fox News' poll gives Obama a 46-39 edge. Thirty-nine!! How can John McCain be polling at 39 percent in any poll!??! (Though, if memory serves, George H.W. Bush lost in '92 with 38 percent -- albeit in a three-way contest).
And, finally, it's a Friday evening and you know what that means -- time for bad political news to break. Unfortuntely (for the GOP), I don't think this story that will be "buried" over the weekend. There will be lots of back-and-forth on this development in the coming days, but one thing can't be argued: The Sarah Palin pick violated the first rule of vice-presidential selections: "First do no harm." Phrases like "abuse of power" don't sit too well a month out from an election.
Well, even though my overarching reason was more personal than political, I'm glad I elected not to be part of the conservative herd that rushed to coronate (or was it "consecrate"?) Sarah Palin as the love child of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
Labels: polls, Presidential politics, sarah palin
Friday, February 01, 2008
Super Tuesday Cheat Sheets
Josh Marshall's TPM Election Central folks have put together a good overview of the of the primary and caucus contest for each state participating in Super Tuesday.
Here are the Democrats (22 states -- American Samoa and Democrats Abroads also select delegates, but they aren't included).
And here are the Republicans (21 states).
The polls are relatively up-to-date -- within a week, except for Utah (Jan. 10), but that one is kinda in the bag for Romney.
The Real Clear Politcs list of latest polls is also helpful.
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Here are the Democrats (22 states -- American Samoa and Democrats Abroads also select delegates, but they aren't included).
And here are the Republicans (21 states).
The polls are relatively up-to-date -- within a week, except for Utah (Jan. 10), but that one is kinda in the bag for Romney.
The Real Clear Politcs list of latest polls is also helpful.
Labels: polls, Super Tuesday
