Tuesday, December 04, 2007
The End is NIE?
The big news of the last two days is the release of the National Intelligence Estimate suggesting that Iran's nuclear weapons program has been dormant since 2003. The president interpreted the report today as a "warning signal." It certainly gives those wary of banging the war drums for Iran some powerful talking points. But that's the policy question.
What does the existence of the NIE entail for domestic politics? Until this week, the leaders in the two respective party presidential fields -- Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton -- have been, at least rhetorically, the most hawkish. Now, at a moment when both candidates are seeing serious dips in their popularity, it will be interesting to see if the hawkish sensibility continues to carry the day.
Iraq seems to be stabilizing and now the tenor against Iran seems off the high boil it was at just a few weeks ago. Such developments could benefit those candidates for whom security or foreign policy "experience" are not the leading parts of their portfolio. In other words if the issue matrix is turned upside down, an Obama or Edwards (on the Democratic side) or Romney or Huckabee may seem even better suited to running the country one year from now. Yes, this is but one moment. Much can change in the next month or six weeks, but the NIE release could have a subtle ripple through the campaign.
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What does the existence of the NIE entail for domestic politics? Until this week, the leaders in the two respective party presidential fields -- Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton -- have been, at least rhetorically, the most hawkish. Now, at a moment when both candidates are seeing serious dips in their popularity, it will be interesting to see if the hawkish sensibility continues to carry the day.
Iraq seems to be stabilizing and now the tenor against Iran seems off the high boil it was at just a few weeks ago. Such developments could benefit those candidates for whom security or foreign policy "experience" are not the leading parts of their portfolio. In other words if the issue matrix is turned upside down, an Obama or Edwards (on the Democratic side) or Romney or Huckabee may seem even better suited to running the country one year from now. Yes, this is but one moment. Much can change in the next month or six weeks, but the NIE release could have a subtle ripple through the campaign.
Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani
