Monday, November 30, 2009
Paging Michael Dukakis!!
Does Mike Huckabee face a 'Willie Horton' problem? The suspect in the weekend shooting of four police officers in Seattle received clemency in Arkansas nearly a decade ago. Uh-oh.
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Labels: 2012 GOP nomination, Michael Dukakis, Mike Huckabee
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Don't Sleep on the Huckster
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has managed to extend her 15 minutes of fame. Barely known 15 months ago, she's become the "It" girl of the right in the interim. One week from today, her "Going Rogue" book will be released. Her book promotion tour will include stop with both Oprah Winfrey and Barbara Walters.
In the recent election, she lined up with conservatives supporting Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 congressional race. Her decision influenced Tim Pawlenty to follow suit. Naturally, that book tour will take her to Iowa, the state where all presidential campaigns are launched.
This week, however, one of her potential rivals for the 2012 presidential nomination piped up to carve some media attention himself. That would be one Michael Huckabee, sounding mildly annoyed at all the focus on the lady from the frozen north, whom Politico calls the GOP's "rock star":
“Some of the people who had excoriated me and really been very dismissive of me for views that I had taken, and labeled me anything from a populist to an ignoramus — the same people have been very defensive [of] and laudatory to Sarah Palin,” Huckabee noted, adding that he’d invited her to appear on his weekly Fox show but “could never get any contact.”
“I’m glad she’s getting the props — I know I’m not nearly as attractive,” he said with a guileless grin.
Ironically, Huckabee is the real rock star -- well, actual musician that is. He's one of the few politicians -- and the only one mentioned in the presidential sweepstakes -- who plays in two bands. His original group is Capitol Offense. Meanwhile, the ad hoc group of Fox staffers that make up the house band of his weekend Fox show are the Little Rockers. In both, he gets to show off his bass guitar-playing chops.
Huckabee buttresses his musical talent with a folksy sense of humor that takes the edge of what might otherwise be an intimidating Baptist preacher -- which he happens to be. This odd mixture of talents -- folksy, musically talented, Chuck Norris pal -- produced in 2008, a Huckabee who managed to become attractive to a mainstream media that usually greets hard-core socially conservative candidates with suspicion or outright hostility.
In fact, Huckabee harshest criticism arguably came from the professional conservative movement who found his views on economics unorthodox -- from the right's perspective -- and record as Arkansas governor as insufficiently conservative. That said, Huckabee still stands out as the most experienced chief executive in the race.
As fallout from the Whitewater investigation, Huckabee's predecessor as governor went to prison. Huckabee finished Tucker's term and then won two in his own right. Consequently, he was governor for 10 1/2 years. For those keeping track, that's more than Mitt Romney (one four-year term in Massachusetts) and Sarah Palin (two-and-a-half years in one abortive term in Alaska) combined.
So, given all that, shouldn't Mike Huckabee be getting a bit more love from the Republican faithful?
Indeed, ridiculously early in the 2012 race as it is, shouldn't he be taken a bit more seriously than just about anyone in the "mentioned" GOP field?
Labels: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, sarah palin
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
I Still Heart Huckabee
Oh, yeah!
Talk about perfect timing! Mike Huckabee has been busy since the end of the GOP primary - writing a book. And, he drops it even before Barack Obama is inaugurated. Unlike most political books -- which are filled with anodyne copy designed not to offend anyone (except, perhaps, one or two folks in the opposing party) -- this one takes no prisoners. He goes after Mitt Romney, the Club For Growth, John Hagee and a few other, ahem, "sacred" cows in the Republican/conservative firmament (if I may mix metaphors). Intra-party fights of this nature are somewhat unusual.
Romney, by the way, again demonstrates why he will never be president: He responds to Huckabee with a, "these attacks are beneath Mike Huckabee; we need to come together" line that is so wimpy that it could have been written by a veteran of the Dukakis, Gore or Kerry campaigns, i.e. losers who never realized that the best way to respond to a punch in politics is with one of your own.
Hmmm...this whole Republicans-in-the-wilderness thing could end up being fun.
UPDATE: A reader asks: "Does this mean Huckabee has given up the idea of running for president? Otherwise, why burn so many bridges?" Actually, he's not burning that many. Evangelicals will likely never get behind Mitt Romney -- either because of flip-flopping or because of his Mormonism is still a problem. Pat Robertson squandered whatever credibility he had left -- even with evangelicals -- with his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani. He'll be past 80 and not much of a player in 2012. Huckabee doesn't need John Hagee, who proved more of a headache than a help to John McCain anyway. Thompson isn't going to run again.
Economic conservatives will have to figure out what their respone to Obamanomics will be. My sense is that Huckabee is going to adopt the "Grand New Party Model" of Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam -- go after the "Sam's Club" members/Main Street folks rather than Wall Street. Frankly, the Club For Growth doesn't relate to those people.
Huckabee obviously wrote the bulk of the book before Sarah Palin was selected. However, this book is partly designed to clear the decks and knock out early the one other potential '08 rival that might think about '12. Just writing this now shows that Huckabee isn't just a "joke" candidate, but someone who's a lot more strategic and tactical than his detractors might have thought. He was the "happy warrior" in '08 because he had to be, but he's not going to be relegated to the "Kumbayah" role going forward. He's happy to start a fight and dare anyone else to mix it up with.
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Talk about perfect timing! Mike Huckabee has been busy since the end of the GOP primary - writing a book. And, he drops it even before Barack Obama is inaugurated. Unlike most political books -- which are filled with anodyne copy designed not to offend anyone (except, perhaps, one or two folks in the opposing party) -- this one takes no prisoners. He goes after Mitt Romney, the Club For Growth, John Hagee and a few other, ahem, "sacred" cows in the Republican/conservative firmament (if I may mix metaphors). Intra-party fights of this nature are somewhat unusual.
Romney, by the way, again demonstrates why he will never be president: He responds to Huckabee with a, "these attacks are beneath Mike Huckabee; we need to come together" line that is so wimpy that it could have been written by a veteran of the Dukakis, Gore or Kerry campaigns, i.e. losers who never realized that the best way to respond to a punch in politics is with one of your own.
Hmmm...this whole Republicans-in-the-wilderness thing could end up being fun.
UPDATE: A reader asks: "Does this mean Huckabee has given up the idea of running for president? Otherwise, why burn so many bridges?" Actually, he's not burning that many. Evangelicals will likely never get behind Mitt Romney -- either because of flip-flopping or because of his Mormonism is still a problem. Pat Robertson squandered whatever credibility he had left -- even with evangelicals -- with his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani. He'll be past 80 and not much of a player in 2012. Huckabee doesn't need John Hagee, who proved more of a headache than a help to John McCain anyway. Thompson isn't going to run again.
Economic conservatives will have to figure out what their respone to Obamanomics will be. My sense is that Huckabee is going to adopt the "Grand New Party Model" of Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam -- go after the "Sam's Club" members/Main Street folks rather than Wall Street. Frankly, the Club For Growth doesn't relate to those people.
Huckabee obviously wrote the bulk of the book before Sarah Palin was selected. However, this book is partly designed to clear the decks and knock out early the one other potential '08 rival that might think about '12. Just writing this now shows that Huckabee isn't just a "joke" candidate, but someone who's a lot more strategic and tactical than his detractors might have thought. He was the "happy warrior" in '08 because he had to be, but he's not going to be relegated to the "Kumbayah" role going forward. He's happy to start a fight and dare anyone else to mix it up with.
Labels: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republican fratricide
Monday, February 11, 2008
Was It Huckabam Sweeps?
Well, this was a particularly horrid weekend for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Barack Obama won convincingly in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington (and the U.S. Virgin Islands!) on Saturday -- and Maine on Sunday (and rubbed it in by beating out Bill Clinton for a Grammy, for cripes sake). It's gotten so bad for Sen. Clinton that campaign manager Pattis Solis Doyle did the obligatory plank walk on Sunday -- replaced by former Clinton chief of staff Maggie Williams.
However, the more interesting story is whether Mike Huckabee had a right to crow over a weekend sweep over presumptive Republican Party nominee John McCain -- and whether that right was stolen from him by the Washington GOP.
The state party stopped counting votes from the caucuses and declared McCain the winner of Washington -- with only 87% of the vote in. At that moment, McCain led Huckabee 26-24 -- the actual margin was about 1.8 percent (Ron Paul had 21% of the vote). The party chairman even admitted that he didn't know where the outstanding vote would be coming from. Why do this?
Well, keep in mind that Huckabee had already won a huge victory in the Kansas caucuses early Saturday and eked out a one percent (43-42) win in Louisiana (which became a "beauty contest" because the winner didn't make 50 percent). So, from a public relations standpoint, Washington began to mean something. If Huckabee had won Washington, he would have been able to say that he he has strength outside of the South (and heavily evangelical states like Kansas and Iowa).
Josh Marshall reported the unfolding Washington story all weekend, beginning here. Josh has further updates, including a press release from the Huckabee campaign and a Meet The Press clip where the governor notes the "weird things" going on.
One point, however, that Josh missed is that the "weird things" began earlier in the evening. I was home Saturday and was flipping back and forth between the cable stations. I noticed that the Washington state Republican returns were stuck on 37 percent of precincts reported for what seemed like at least 90 minutes. Then, around 10:30 or so, the numbers jumped up to 74 percent, before slowing to a trickle -- and stopping at 87 percent. What was notable was that Huckabee led McCain by about 27-23 percent at the 37 percent reporting period. When the counting resumed, it seemed like McCain immediately jumped in front -- to the 26-24 margin that remained at the time the counting was "called." Normally, if one candidate catches and passes another as returns come in, it doesn't raise any eyebrows.
But given the, ahem, weirdness (theft?) in Washington, every odd activity needs to be examined.
Cripes, guys, McCain is going to win the darn thing. It's practically mathematically impossible for Huckabee to catch up. But, no, the Washington GOP has to try some underhanded measures to force the issue. And they wonder why the party is in such trouble.
UPDATE: Ed Morrissey chastises the Washington state party chair, while noting that the margin between McCain and Huckabee has remained constant after counting was restarted (they're up to 94 percent now).
UPDATE II: Josh Marshall has an even more of a detailed chronology of Saturday's evening voting aberrations -- as well as some incomprehensible "explanations" on what happened.
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However, the more interesting story is whether Mike Huckabee had a right to crow over a weekend sweep over presumptive Republican Party nominee John McCain -- and whether that right was stolen from him by the Washington GOP.
The state party stopped counting votes from the caucuses and declared McCain the winner of Washington -- with only 87% of the vote in. At that moment, McCain led Huckabee 26-24 -- the actual margin was about 1.8 percent (Ron Paul had 21% of the vote). The party chairman even admitted that he didn't know where the outstanding vote would be coming from. Why do this?
Well, keep in mind that Huckabee had already won a huge victory in the Kansas caucuses early Saturday and eked out a one percent (43-42) win in Louisiana (which became a "beauty contest" because the winner didn't make 50 percent). So, from a public relations standpoint, Washington began to mean something. If Huckabee had won Washington, he would have been able to say that he he has strength outside of the South (and heavily evangelical states like Kansas and Iowa).
Josh Marshall reported the unfolding Washington story all weekend, beginning here. Josh has further updates, including a press release from the Huckabee campaign and a Meet The Press clip where the governor notes the "weird things" going on.
One point, however, that Josh missed is that the "weird things" began earlier in the evening. I was home Saturday and was flipping back and forth between the cable stations. I noticed that the Washington state Republican returns were stuck on 37 percent of precincts reported for what seemed like at least 90 minutes. Then, around 10:30 or so, the numbers jumped up to 74 percent, before slowing to a trickle -- and stopping at 87 percent. What was notable was that Huckabee led McCain by about 27-23 percent at the 37 percent reporting period. When the counting resumed, it seemed like McCain immediately jumped in front -- to the 26-24 margin that remained at the time the counting was "called." Normally, if one candidate catches and passes another as returns come in, it doesn't raise any eyebrows.
But given the, ahem, weirdness (theft?) in Washington, every odd activity needs to be examined.
Cripes, guys, McCain is going to win the darn thing. It's practically mathematically impossible for Huckabee to catch up. But, no, the Washington GOP has to try some underhanded measures to force the issue. And they wonder why the party is in such trouble.
UPDATE: Ed Morrissey chastises the Washington state party chair, while noting that the margin between McCain and Huckabee has remained constant after counting was restarted (they're up to 94 percent now).
UPDATE II: Josh Marshall has an even more of a detailed chronology of Saturday's evening voting aberrations -- as well as some incomprehensible "explanations" on what happened.
Labels: corruption, GOP 2008 President, John McCain, Mike Huckabee
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
A Non-Conservative GOP?
Okay, as of midnight Eastern time, 13 of the 21 Republican contested primary and caucus states were won by McCain and Huckabee -- the two candidates that the so-called conservative political talking-head elite declared were "not conservative." Meanwhile, Mitt Romney -- favored choice of this conservative punditocracy is stuck scrabbling a few states other than his "home" states of Massachusetts and Utah. Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, Ann Coulter, et. al. you're going to have to deal with the faces of the new Republican Party -- like it or not.
UPDATE: Clarification -- "punditocracy" added after "this conservative" in the second paragraph.
UPDATE II: Roughly speaking, McCain, Romney and Huckabee represent, respectively, what has been called the three "stools" of the Republican base -- national security, economics and morality/values. Well, don't look now, but across the country, the national security/values combination just trounced the economic/fiscal conservatism candidate. Is it just a coincidence that this result occurs the day after the "holy warrior" George W. Bush dropped his farewell "gift" to Congress -- a $3.1 t rillion budget with a $409 billion deficit? In a political environment where concern over the economy is higher than it has been in years, these developments spells bad news for the GOP come November -- unless something drastic occurs to change the playing field in the weeks ahead.
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UPDATE: Clarification -- "punditocracy" added after "this conservative" in the second paragraph.
UPDATE II: Roughly speaking, McCain, Romney and Huckabee represent, respectively, what has been called the three "stools" of the Republican base -- national security, economics and morality/values. Well, don't look now, but across the country, the national security/values combination just trounced the economic/fiscal conservatism candidate. Is it just a coincidence that this result occurs the day after the "holy warrior" George W. Bush dropped his farewell "gift" to Congress -- a $3.1 t rillion budget with a $409 billion deficit? In a political environment where concern over the economy is higher than it has been in years, these developments spells bad news for the GOP come November -- unless something drastic occurs to change the playing field in the weeks ahead.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney
Monday, January 21, 2008
Got MLK?
The holiday weekend might be bringing out blood on the floor within the Democratic Party (Hillary vs. Barack vs. Bill), but there's some inter-party love flowing between former Arkansas chief execs.
Nice clip here from MLK Day ceremonies in Atlanta.
Oh, one slight piece of advice for Sen. Obama: Don't take the bait. Attacking Bill Clinton does you no favors. He's not the candidate. Whenever Candidate A gets into a fight with Candidate B's attack dog, Candidate A loses twice: Candidate B gets to remain above the fray, while Candidate A gets dragged down into the mud -- and becomes unable to spread his own message.
That is, of course, exactly what the Clintons were hoping.
One more thing: The "stop lying about my record" gambit didn't work too well for Bob Dole, circa 1988, if memory serves...
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Nice clip here from MLK Day ceremonies in Atlanta.
Oh, one slight piece of advice for Sen. Obama: Don't take the bait. Attacking Bill Clinton does you no favors. He's not the candidate. Whenever Candidate A gets into a fight with Candidate B's attack dog, Candidate A loses twice: Candidate B gets to remain above the fray, while Candidate A gets dragged down into the mud -- and becomes unable to spread his own message.
That is, of course, exactly what the Clintons were hoping.
One more thing: The "stop lying about my record" gambit didn't work too well for Bob Dole, circa 1988, if memory serves...
Labels: Bill Clinton, Mike Huckabee
Friday, January 04, 2008
The Iowa Story
1) An historic achievement: On the macro level, Sen. Barack Obama, a black American won the state of Iowa in convincing fashion -- eight point over a guy who came in second four years ago and had practically moved into the state in the interim. Then, on the micro-level, he gave former first lady, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, her first electoral defeat -- and the first defeat for the vaunted Clinton political machine since Bill's first gubernatorial re-election in 1980. And lest anyone forget, the man can give a helluva speech:
2) Mike Huckabee defeated the Republican candidate who spent the most and had the largest political machine.
3) As Dick Polman noted Thursday, only one person has won Iowa outright and gone onto win the presidency the same year -- George W. Bush in 2000.
4) George H.W. Bush came in third in Iowa in 1988 -- and went on to become the eventual nominee and then won the White House.
5) John McCain's de facto tie for third place with Fred Thompson sets him up well to deliver a near-fatal blow to Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
6) At the Democratic Party event I attended, several people identified McCain as the person they were most nervous about facing in November.
7) Ron Paul crushed Rudy Giuliani -- more than doubling the former mayor's votes. The Texan has a few millions to spend over the weekend in New Hampshire and may produce a few more surprises before this primary season is over.
8) Hillary Rodham Clinton isn't dead yet. She is still the likely Democratic nominee. The question is whether can she recalibrate her campaign in the way other front-runners have done following early setbacks. She faces a major challenge, however: Is she prepared to put her husband, the former president and his administration, on the sidelines -- and make a case for herself on her own merits? Elections are ultimately about the future -- not the past, regardless of how well that moment might be fondly remembered by some partisans.
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2) Mike Huckabee defeated the Republican candidate who spent the most and had the largest political machine.
3) As Dick Polman noted Thursday, only one person has won Iowa outright and gone onto win the presidency the same year -- George W. Bush in 2000.
4) George H.W. Bush came in third in Iowa in 1988 -- and went on to become the eventual nominee and then won the White House.
5) John McCain's de facto tie for third place with Fred Thompson sets him up well to deliver a near-fatal blow to Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
6) At the Democratic Party event I attended, several people identified McCain as the person they were most nervous about facing in November.
7) Ron Paul crushed Rudy Giuliani -- more than doubling the former mayor's votes. The Texan has a few millions to spend over the weekend in New Hampshire and may produce a few more surprises before this primary season is over.
8) Hillary Rodham Clinton isn't dead yet. She is still the likely Democratic nominee. The question is whether can she recalibrate her campaign in the way other front-runners have done following early setbacks. She faces a major challenge, however: Is she prepared to put her husband, the former president and his administration, on the sidelines -- and make a case for herself on her own merits? Elections are ultimately about the future -- not the past, regardless of how well that moment might be fondly remembered by some partisans.
Labels: Barack Obama, Dem 2008 Presidential, GOP 2008 President, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul
Friday, December 14, 2007
Huckabamania!!!
This may turn out to be one of the most exciting, unpredictable, presidential races in recent memory.
The respective surges of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama don't seem to be abating. The former governor has zoomed ahead in South Carolina and, in one poll, Florida as well -- where Rudy Giuliani has fallen into third place (Ron Paul's jump to 11 percent in South Carolina is interesting as well). While that seems to be a reflection of what Huckabee is doing well, Obama is taking advantage of what looks like a meltdown of historic proportions in the Clinton campaign (though the CNN poll still has Hillary leading in SC, other recent surveys have Obama ahead). Getting involved in drugs-and-race story in New Hampshire is most definitely not what HRC was looking for -- as Obama overtakes her in the Granite State.
Hillary has the money and organization to turn this around. But she'd better come up with a better narrative for her campaign -- and soon -- or an increasingly confident Obama may run away with this.
If Huck and Bam actually knock off the favorite, better-known and funded candidates in their respective parties, this election may end up being known as the Revenge of the Bases. The evangelicals feel that they shouldn't have to "settle" for a nominee that they don't trust or shares their values. The liberal base feels that it's time to turn the page from the Clinton years -- and a woman who (in their view) was wrong on the war.
Buckle your seatbelts -- but pass the popcorn. The ride might be bumpy, but you might as well have some munchies!
UPDATE: Pre-postmortems for Hillary? Howard Fineman and Peggy Noonan.
UPDATE II: Dan Balz looks back at the disastrous day in Philadelphia that first threw Hillary off course. RT noted at the time how Gov. Eliot Spitzer's since-abandoned driver's license plan might turn out to be the wild-card derailing Hillary's plans.
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The respective surges of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama don't seem to be abating. The former governor has zoomed ahead in South Carolina and, in one poll, Florida as well -- where Rudy Giuliani has fallen into third place (Ron Paul's jump to 11 percent in South Carolina is interesting as well). While that seems to be a reflection of what Huckabee is doing well, Obama is taking advantage of what looks like a meltdown of historic proportions in the Clinton campaign (though the CNN poll still has Hillary leading in SC, other recent surveys have Obama ahead). Getting involved in drugs-and-race story in New Hampshire is most definitely not what HRC was looking for -- as Obama overtakes her in the Granite State.
Hillary has the money and organization to turn this around. But she'd better come up with a better narrative for her campaign -- and soon -- or an increasingly confident Obama may run away with this.
If Huck and Bam actually knock off the favorite, better-known and funded candidates in their respective parties, this election may end up being known as the Revenge of the Bases. The evangelicals feel that they shouldn't have to "settle" for a nominee that they don't trust or shares their values. The liberal base feels that it's time to turn the page from the Clinton years -- and a woman who (in their view) was wrong on the war.
Buckle your seatbelts -- but pass the popcorn. The ride might be bumpy, but you might as well have some munchies!
UPDATE: Pre-postmortems for Hillary? Howard Fineman and Peggy Noonan.
UPDATE II: Dan Balz looks back at the disastrous day in Philadelphia that first threw Hillary off course. RT noted at the time how Gov. Eliot Spitzer's since-abandoned driver's license plan might turn out to be the wild-card derailing Hillary's plans.
Labels: Barack Obama, GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
The End is NIE?
The big news of the last two days is the release of the National Intelligence Estimate suggesting that Iran's nuclear weapons program has been dormant since 2003. The president interpreted the report today as a "warning signal." It certainly gives those wary of banging the war drums for Iran some powerful talking points. But that's the policy question.
What does the existence of the NIE entail for domestic politics? Until this week, the leaders in the two respective party presidential fields -- Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton -- have been, at least rhetorically, the most hawkish. Now, at a moment when both candidates are seeing serious dips in their popularity, it will be interesting to see if the hawkish sensibility continues to carry the day.
Iraq seems to be stabilizing and now the tenor against Iran seems off the high boil it was at just a few weeks ago. Such developments could benefit those candidates for whom security or foreign policy "experience" are not the leading parts of their portfolio. In other words if the issue matrix is turned upside down, an Obama or Edwards (on the Democratic side) or Romney or Huckabee may seem even better suited to running the country one year from now. Yes, this is but one moment. Much can change in the next month or six weeks, but the NIE release could have a subtle ripple through the campaign.
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What does the existence of the NIE entail for domestic politics? Until this week, the leaders in the two respective party presidential fields -- Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton -- have been, at least rhetorically, the most hawkish. Now, at a moment when both candidates are seeing serious dips in their popularity, it will be interesting to see if the hawkish sensibility continues to carry the day.
Iraq seems to be stabilizing and now the tenor against Iran seems off the high boil it was at just a few weeks ago. Such developments could benefit those candidates for whom security or foreign policy "experience" are not the leading parts of their portfolio. In other words if the issue matrix is turned upside down, an Obama or Edwards (on the Democratic side) or Romney or Huckabee may seem even better suited to running the country one year from now. Yes, this is but one moment. Much can change in the next month or six weeks, but the NIE release could have a subtle ripple through the campaign.
Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani
Monday, December 03, 2007
Huck's Next Move
Ed Morrissey discusses Huckabee's emerging role as the "anti-Mitt" and the "anti-Rudy candidate and whether he can take it to the next level.
The biggest obstacle to Huckabee breaking out is money and what it brings -- organization. The early money that raised by Romney and Giuliani (and Clinton and Obama on the Democratic side) allowed those candidates to create nationwide campaigns that helps protect against early stumbles. In the case of Giuliani, the belief is that his organization allows him the luxury of losing one or more of the early races and win in places like Florida, New York, California, etc. later on. Romney is hoping that his organization in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will create an early wave to knock out the other contenders.
Conversely, Iowa, so far, is the only place where Huckabee has a solid organization.
But the attention he has received over the last month -- the rise in Iowa creating national attention that starts a spillover effect in places like South Carolina and Florida -- can only help if he has enough money to put a national organization in place.
Can he do it?
A DC Republican -- someone with more than 20 years experience in the fundraising business -- told me the night after last week's GOP debate that Huckabeee "Huckabee is going to be fascinating to watch since he has NO organization outside Iowa . . zip.. . nada . . .zero. He is certainly not in any shape, right now, to compete on Super Tuesday." On the other hand, in a world where Ron Paul managed to raise $5 million in one day (and is on track to raise the most funds in the current quarter), it's not out of the question for Huckabee to be able to use the Internet to make a late comeback.
My DC source adds, "Huckabee's just recently gotten his 'Internet' house in order. Lately, he's been getting rave reviews from the online critics. It will be VERY fascinating to see if Huckabee can translate that into online giving. The whole Chuck Norris thing gave Huckabee great buzz and if they can't capitalize on that something really is wrong there."
December should be an interesting month.
UPDATE: Yep, Huckabee's moving up. He's getting the shots that a perceived threat should expect. The tax issue is going to be his greatest internal GOP hurdle to expanding his campaign.
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The biggest obstacle to Huckabee breaking out is money and what it brings -- organization. The early money that raised by Romney and Giuliani (and Clinton and Obama on the Democratic side) allowed those candidates to create nationwide campaigns that helps protect against early stumbles. In the case of Giuliani, the belief is that his organization allows him the luxury of losing one or more of the early races and win in places like Florida, New York, California, etc. later on. Romney is hoping that his organization in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will create an early wave to knock out the other contenders.
Conversely, Iowa, so far, is the only place where Huckabee has a solid organization.
But the attention he has received over the last month -- the rise in Iowa creating national attention that starts a spillover effect in places like South Carolina and Florida -- can only help if he has enough money to put a national organization in place.
Can he do it?
A DC Republican -- someone with more than 20 years experience in the fundraising business -- told me the night after last week's GOP debate that Huckabeee "Huckabee is going to be fascinating to watch since he has NO organization outside Iowa . . zip.. . nada . . .zero. He is certainly not in any shape, right now, to compete on Super Tuesday." On the other hand, in a world where Ron Paul managed to raise $5 million in one day (and is on track to raise the most funds in the current quarter), it's not out of the question for Huckabee to be able to use the Internet to make a late comeback.
My DC source adds, "Huckabee's just recently gotten his 'Internet' house in order. Lately, he's been getting rave reviews from the online critics. It will be VERY fascinating to see if Huckabee can translate that into online giving. The whole Chuck Norris thing gave Huckabee great buzz and if they can't capitalize on that something really is wrong there."
December should be an interesting month.
UPDATE: Yep, Huckabee's moving up. He's getting the shots that a perceived threat should expect. The tax issue is going to be his greatest internal GOP hurdle to expanding his campaign.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee
Friday, November 30, 2007
Best Laid Plans
In noting the NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson charge that Rudy Giuliani "stonewalled" his auditing probe into the reallocated security billings back in 2002, Andrew Sullivan echoes my pre-debate observation. Rudy's hope/strategy to let Mike Huckabee be a stalking horse for Mitt Romney in the early states may backfire:
UPDATE: Rudy's creative "accounting" gets mega NYC tabloid love here, here and here.
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But it's a sign of what may well be coming with the Giuliani candidacy: so many skeletons from so many New York City closets that he begins to become a liability. People talk of how Huckabee could weaken Romney and allow Rudy to win. But what if Rudy and Romney so destroy one another that Huckabee comes up between them. He's been rising in South Carolina all year as well. And Giuliani has been sliding there constantly in the past nine months.Josh Marshall's Muckraker task force also points out that Giuliani defenders are already in "changing story" mode.
UPDATE: Rudy's creative "accounting" gets mega NYC tabloid love here, here and here.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, sex scandal
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Be Like Mike
I agree with Ed Morrissey that, overall, this was a pretty good broad debate. The questions CNN selected from YouTubers seemed far more substantial than the Democratic version.
My views on the various winners and losers pretty much parallel Ryan Sager. I'm not a Giuliani fan, but I thought he did quite well for himself. As Morrissey said, the "sanctuary mansion" line was a personal cheap-shot at Mitt Romney -- but it was damn effective. Rudy's greatest skill is knowing his audience and how to play/demagogue to it. Romney's explanation on why illegal immigrants were working on his house (they were subcontractors hired by the company Romney hired) makes perfect sense.
However, there is an adage in politics -- "If you're explaining, you're losing." Rudy trapped Romney into "explaining" the issue and thus pushed him into a defensive situation. Good move by CNN of putting Romney and Giuliani side-by-side. You kinda got the feeling that they would have started whaling on each other if the cameras weren't on. Anyway, that opening exchange kind of set the tone: Romney was unable to truly help himself in any major way. He had a good line at the end gibing Giuliani for his Red Sox moment in the World Series, but that was about it.
Giuliani, on the other hand, of course, did quite well while discussing his New York crime reduction record. He also did well in reminding the audience of his record in reducing welfare as well. However, tellingly, one of his few stumbles of the night came in an area where conservatives don't trust him -- guns. He stumbled over the name of a judge who made a decision on the regulation of guns. Notably, his answer on guns was the only time Giuliani received clearly-heard boos. Giuliani, by the way, does deserve credit for candidly saying that he wouldn't sign a federal law banning abortion. He correctly said that, were Roe v. Wade overturned, the states would make their own decisions on the practice.
As if to demonstrate that that certain political adages don't always hold, Mike Huckabee -- the real winner, in my view, "explained" his policy of allowing the children of illegal immigrants to go to college in Arkansas. But, as much as Romney tried to pin him, Huckabee didn't seem defensive in stating his case. His describing those immigrant offspring as "God's children" struck the perfect note; it must have gone over well with his social conservative base, regardless of how they thought about illegal immigration.
His best moment came while responding to the question of what government agencies would he cut. He was into the answer when Cooper told him he had just thirty seconds left. Huckabee didn't hear it at first, so Cooper repeated it. Huckabee just smiled, said "Oh, OK" -- reiterated a comment about shutting down the IRS and just stopped. Huckabee also had a good moment after a YouTube question on whether the candidates believed "every word" in the Bible was true. The question went first to Giuliani who paused before responding. Huckabee piped up and asked Rudy if he needed help answering the question. Rudy chuckled along and invited Huckabee to "help."
[I can't be the only person, however, who cringed a little bit when Rudy said of the Holy Book, "The reality is, I believe it, but I don't believe it's necessarily literally true in every single respect." Given Rudy's interesting marital history, that statement makes an awkward moment. Related to that, given how he responded to Anderson Cooper when the Politico story came up, it looks like Giuliani will deal with it by saying that he had no say in how security costs were billed in his administration. This was the one moment where one wished this was a normal, reporter-driven debate, because Cooper was clearly either unprepared or uncomfortable going to the logical follow-up, "Mr. Mayor, so you are saying that these costs weren't hidden to hide the fact that you were making visits to your now-wife while you were still married to your previous wife?"
Without that context, the issue loses much of its salience -- as Ryan Sager admitted in his take. However, it will be interesting to see what happens as the New York media explores the scandal in days ahead.]
Anyway, not surprisingly, Huckabee hit Bible question out of the park -- but not in just the obvious way. Yes, he spoke of it as the "word of revelation" from God. But he didn't come across as a scary religious freak. He said that certain things can't be taken literally -- such as plucking out one's eye. He then added that "there are parts of it I don't fully comprehend and understand, because the Bible is a revelation of an infinite god, and no finite person is ever going to fully understand it. If they do, their god is too small." He immediately came across simultaneously as devout (good for the religious conservatives), reasonable (good for the secular types) and humble (good for just about anyone wary of politicians). This man is damn good.
Political analysts need to head to Arkansas sometime soon. The water there must be tested -- to find out how one state could produce two natural master politicians like Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee in one generation. Over the course of several months of campaigning, Huckabee has transformed himself from just being the guy who "gives good debate" -- into the a real force to be reckoned withr. He didn't get the most questions or get the most time, but every time the camera and the microphone were on him, he was on. Flawless. He came across as relaxed, human and engaging. To my fellow economic and libertarian conservatives, I can only say, beware. If he is as good as the previous Man from Hope, he will confound and frustrate you -- even as he bounds past you, keeping his eye fixed on the finish line.
In the miscellaneous category: McCain had an "OK" night. He was at his best defending his support of the Iraq War -- and taking down Romney on the is-waterboarding-torture issue. However, there was no breakout moment for him.
Similarly, Fred Thompson showed that he knew his policy positions; he got in some good digs at both Giuliani and Romney. Ultimately, however, he often sounded like the cranky grandfather. I just don't see him gaining any traction from his debate tonight.
Ron Paul should have learned by now that there is no way to "win" in answering a question about the Council on Foreign Relations or the Trilateral Commission. You'll end up sounding nutty. Paul is far more cerebral than the other candidates and he obviously doesn't have Huckabee's political gifts. Thus, it was obvious that he was frustrated in not getting enough time as the top four/five candidates. As a result, he would tend to rush and stammer through many points -- even if his view was technically right. He was fortunate though that CNN gave him a gift at the end of the night with a clip from a supporter who was encouraging him to run as a third party candidate in the general election. That gave Paul the opportunity to share with the audience his Republican bona fides, including that he had been elected 10 times as a Republican. That may not have won back any fans turned off by his demand to "bring the troops home" (though that statement did get some scattered applause and cheers).
If there is one question I would have liked asked, it's this one: "Name three good decisions George W. Bush has made that you agree with -- and two that you don't." It is amazing that seven years into a Republican administration, the name of the incumbent president was not uttered once. Indeed, only John McCain even mentioned a Bush appointee, albeit disparagingly -- former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Final comment: I watched the debate in a room of politically-active liberals in Tribeca. They "voted" at the end on "If Fred Thompson's shotgun was pointed at your head, which Republican would you 'vote' for based on this debate?" Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain and Paul made it on the first round (measured by applause). The liberal audience then judged Huckabee the "winner."
I asked the room which Republican "scared" them the most. I was surprised to find that Romney was the runaway "winner" in that category.
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My views on the various winners and losers pretty much parallel Ryan Sager. I'm not a Giuliani fan, but I thought he did quite well for himself. As Morrissey said, the "sanctuary mansion" line was a personal cheap-shot at Mitt Romney -- but it was damn effective. Rudy's greatest skill is knowing his audience and how to play/demagogue to it. Romney's explanation on why illegal immigrants were working on his house (they were subcontractors hired by the company Romney hired) makes perfect sense.
However, there is an adage in politics -- "If you're explaining, you're losing." Rudy trapped Romney into "explaining" the issue and thus pushed him into a defensive situation. Good move by CNN of putting Romney and Giuliani side-by-side. You kinda got the feeling that they would have started whaling on each other if the cameras weren't on. Anyway, that opening exchange kind of set the tone: Romney was unable to truly help himself in any major way. He had a good line at the end gibing Giuliani for his Red Sox moment in the World Series, but that was about it.
Giuliani, on the other hand, of course, did quite well while discussing his New York crime reduction record. He also did well in reminding the audience of his record in reducing welfare as well. However, tellingly, one of his few stumbles of the night came in an area where conservatives don't trust him -- guns. He stumbled over the name of a judge who made a decision on the regulation of guns. Notably, his answer on guns was the only time Giuliani received clearly-heard boos. Giuliani, by the way, does deserve credit for candidly saying that he wouldn't sign a federal law banning abortion. He correctly said that, were Roe v. Wade overturned, the states would make their own decisions on the practice.
As if to demonstrate that that certain political adages don't always hold, Mike Huckabee -- the real winner, in my view, "explained" his policy of allowing the children of illegal immigrants to go to college in Arkansas. But, as much as Romney tried to pin him, Huckabee didn't seem defensive in stating his case. His describing those immigrant offspring as "God's children" struck the perfect note; it must have gone over well with his social conservative base, regardless of how they thought about illegal immigration.
His best moment came while responding to the question of what government agencies would he cut. He was into the answer when Cooper told him he had just thirty seconds left. Huckabee didn't hear it at first, so Cooper repeated it. Huckabee just smiled, said "Oh, OK" -- reiterated a comment about shutting down the IRS and just stopped. Huckabee also had a good moment after a YouTube question on whether the candidates believed "every word" in the Bible was true. The question went first to Giuliani who paused before responding. Huckabee piped up and asked Rudy if he needed help answering the question. Rudy chuckled along and invited Huckabee to "help."
[I can't be the only person, however, who cringed a little bit when Rudy said of the Holy Book, "The reality is, I believe it, but I don't believe it's necessarily literally true in every single respect." Given Rudy's interesting marital history, that statement makes an awkward moment. Related to that, given how he responded to Anderson Cooper when the Politico story came up, it looks like Giuliani will deal with it by saying that he had no say in how security costs were billed in his administration. This was the one moment where one wished this was a normal, reporter-driven debate, because Cooper was clearly either unprepared or uncomfortable going to the logical follow-up, "Mr. Mayor, so you are saying that these costs weren't hidden to hide the fact that you were making visits to your now-wife while you were still married to your previous wife?"
Without that context, the issue loses much of its salience -- as Ryan Sager admitted in his take. However, it will be interesting to see what happens as the New York media explores the scandal in days ahead.]
Anyway, not surprisingly, Huckabee hit Bible question out of the park -- but not in just the obvious way. Yes, he spoke of it as the "word of revelation" from God. But he didn't come across as a scary religious freak. He said that certain things can't be taken literally -- such as plucking out one's eye. He then added that "there are parts of it I don't fully comprehend and understand, because the Bible is a revelation of an infinite god, and no finite person is ever going to fully understand it. If they do, their god is too small." He immediately came across simultaneously as devout (good for the religious conservatives), reasonable (good for the secular types) and humble (good for just about anyone wary of politicians). This man is damn good.
Political analysts need to head to Arkansas sometime soon. The water there must be tested -- to find out how one state could produce two natural master politicians like Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee in one generation. Over the course of several months of campaigning, Huckabee has transformed himself from just being the guy who "gives good debate" -- into the a real force to be reckoned withr. He didn't get the most questions or get the most time, but every time the camera and the microphone were on him, he was on. Flawless. He came across as relaxed, human and engaging. To my fellow economic and libertarian conservatives, I can only say, beware. If he is as good as the previous Man from Hope, he will confound and frustrate you -- even as he bounds past you, keeping his eye fixed on the finish line.
In the miscellaneous category: McCain had an "OK" night. He was at his best defending his support of the Iraq War -- and taking down Romney on the is-waterboarding-torture issue. However, there was no breakout moment for him.
Similarly, Fred Thompson showed that he knew his policy positions; he got in some good digs at both Giuliani and Romney. Ultimately, however, he often sounded like the cranky grandfather. I just don't see him gaining any traction from his debate tonight.
Ron Paul should have learned by now that there is no way to "win" in answering a question about the Council on Foreign Relations or the Trilateral Commission. You'll end up sounding nutty. Paul is far more cerebral than the other candidates and he obviously doesn't have Huckabee's political gifts. Thus, it was obvious that he was frustrated in not getting enough time as the top four/five candidates. As a result, he would tend to rush and stammer through many points -- even if his view was technically right. He was fortunate though that CNN gave him a gift at the end of the night with a clip from a supporter who was encouraging him to run as a third party candidate in the general election. That gave Paul the opportunity to share with the audience his Republican bona fides, including that he had been elected 10 times as a Republican. That may not have won back any fans turned off by his demand to "bring the troops home" (though that statement did get some scattered applause and cheers).
If there is one question I would have liked asked, it's this one: "Name three good decisions George W. Bush has made that you agree with -- and two that you don't." It is amazing that seven years into a Republican administration, the name of the incumbent president was not uttered once. Indeed, only John McCain even mentioned a Bush appointee, albeit disparagingly -- former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Final comment: I watched the debate in a room of politically-active liberals in Tribeca. They "voted" at the end on "If Fred Thompson's shotgun was pointed at your head, which Republican would you 'vote' for based on this debate?" Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain and Paul made it on the first round (measured by applause). The liberal audience then judged Huckabee the "winner."
I asked the room which Republican "scared" them the most. I was surprised to find that Romney was the runaway "winner" in that category.
Labels: debates, GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Huckabee Rising on Debate Day
The Huckabee breakout.
Rasmussen Reports has Huckabee taking the lead in Iowa -- devastating news for Mitt Romney. Rasmussen also shows Huckabee coming on strong in third nationally among Republicans. The GOP-leaning Insider Advantage poll in Florida has Huckabee surging into second place behind Rudy. Fred Thompson is collapsing in the Sunshine State -- as he is in many places (except South Carolina -- see below). Stephen Bainbridge is convinced that he's toast, though, like me he notes the irony that Thompson, ironically, is the candidate putting forward the most comprehensive policy statements. Too much, too late?
Romney might take real heart that a Clemson University poll has Rudy dropping like a rock in South Carolina. It will be interesting to see if Romney's recent comments on whether he would appoint a Muslim to serve in his Cabinet becomes a topic on tonight's CNN/You Tube debate.
However, given Huckabee's surge, the spotlight is likely to be on him tonight. Already, the economic conservatives have the knives out for the other "Boy From Hope." (Your not-so-humble host noticed this phenomenon beginning last month.) Jonah Goldberg recently called him an example of "compassionate conservatism on steroids." But after waiting all these months, if social conservatives have decided that Huckabee is "the one", will they tolerate a gang-bang on their golden boy? If he is seen as being "taken out" by the Mormon governor and the liberal New York mayor, will the social cons keep their allegiance to the GOP.
In any event, these latest developments force all the leaders to reassess their strategies.
Romney has to take Huckabee seriously, because a defeat in Iowa could be fatal for the former Massachusetts governor. But things have changed for the former New York governor as well. Previously, it was in Giuliani's best interest to ignore Huckabee and allow him to take the wind out of Romney's sails in Iowa (which Rudy wasn't seriously contesting anyway). That strategy was good if Huckabee was only doing well in Iowa.
If, as it appears, he has become the social conservative's breakout candidate -- and a charismatic Southerner to boot -- Huckabee suddenly becomes a major threat to Rudy's "Florida Firewall." Giuliani's plan all along was to ignore Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and then pick up the big states on February 5th and beyond. That might still work for California, New York and other Northeast states, but if Huckabee (conceptually) upsets Romney in Iowa, either wins or comes in second in South Carolina, he may have the momentum to upset Rudy in Florida.
At that point, everything is up for grabs. The question may end up being will the likely GOP ticket be Giuliani-Huckabee -- or Huckabee-Giuliani.
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Rasmussen Reports has Huckabee taking the lead in Iowa -- devastating news for Mitt Romney. Rasmussen also shows Huckabee coming on strong in third nationally among Republicans. The GOP-leaning Insider Advantage poll in Florida has Huckabee surging into second place behind Rudy. Fred Thompson is collapsing in the Sunshine State -- as he is in many places (except South Carolina -- see below). Stephen Bainbridge is convinced that he's toast, though, like me he notes the irony that Thompson, ironically, is the candidate putting forward the most comprehensive policy statements. Too much, too late?
Romney might take real heart that a Clemson University poll has Rudy dropping like a rock in South Carolina. It will be interesting to see if Romney's recent comments on whether he would appoint a Muslim to serve in his Cabinet becomes a topic on tonight's CNN/You Tube debate.
However, given Huckabee's surge, the spotlight is likely to be on him tonight. Already, the economic conservatives have the knives out for the other "Boy From Hope." (Your not-so-humble host noticed this phenomenon beginning last month.) Jonah Goldberg recently called him an example of "compassionate conservatism on steroids." But after waiting all these months, if social conservatives have decided that Huckabee is "the one", will they tolerate a gang-bang on their golden boy? If he is seen as being "taken out" by the Mormon governor and the liberal New York mayor, will the social cons keep their allegiance to the GOP.
In any event, these latest developments force all the leaders to reassess their strategies.
Romney has to take Huckabee seriously, because a defeat in Iowa could be fatal for the former Massachusetts governor. But things have changed for the former New York governor as well. Previously, it was in Giuliani's best interest to ignore Huckabee and allow him to take the wind out of Romney's sails in Iowa (which Rudy wasn't seriously contesting anyway). That strategy was good if Huckabee was only doing well in Iowa.
If, as it appears, he has become the social conservative's breakout candidate -- and a charismatic Southerner to boot -- Huckabee suddenly becomes a major threat to Rudy's "Florida Firewall." Giuliani's plan all along was to ignore Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and then pick up the big states on February 5th and beyond. That might still work for California, New York and other Northeast states, but if Huckabee (conceptually) upsets Romney in Iowa, either wins or comes in second in South Carolina, he may have the momentum to upset Rudy in Florida.
At that point, everything is up for grabs. The question may end up being will the likely GOP ticket be Giuliani-Huckabee -- or Huckabee-Giuliani.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Hope Springs Eternal
Never underestimate those Arkansas boys. The Mike Huckabee surge begins (in fact, it began with his second place showing at the straw poll several weeks back). Given the way Iowa works, I wouldn't be surprised at this point if the Huckster wins the caucases in January.
That would be disastrous news for Romney -- and great news for Rudy Giuliani who has basically given up on Iowa. The only thing keeping Giuliani from being the undisputed front-runner in the race is that Romney has been leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire -- and gaining ground in South Carolina. If he ran the table in the three early contests, that momentum could eat away at the leads Rudy has in the big states that vote on Feb. 5 (New York, Florida, California, etc.). However, divided results (Huckabee in Iowa, Romney in NH and Thompson -- though that doesn't look likely -- in South Carolina) would fit perfectly for the mayor.
Of course, there is always the possibility that a Huckabee surge could also work wonders for, uh, Mike Huckabee. The one thing keeping him down right now is money -- and that can be cured by a few positive polls.
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That would be disastrous news for Romney -- and great news for Rudy Giuliani who has basically given up on Iowa. The only thing keeping Giuliani from being the undisputed front-runner in the race is that Romney has been leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire -- and gaining ground in South Carolina. If he ran the table in the three early contests, that momentum could eat away at the leads Rudy has in the big states that vote on Feb. 5 (New York, Florida, California, etc.). However, divided results (Huckabee in Iowa, Romney in NH and Thompson -- though that doesn't look likely -- in South Carolina) would fit perfectly for the mayor.
Of course, there is always the possibility that a Huckabee surge could also work wonders for, uh, Mike Huckabee. The one thing keeping him down right now is money -- and that can be cured by a few positive polls.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney
Friday, October 26, 2007
The Huckabee Backlash
Just as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee started making a move on the leaders in Iowa, it seems like the inevitable backlash has begun. And what is so surprising is its intensity.
It started early this week with this rather sardonic Rich Lowry column, with cool lines like,
Anyway, that was followed by Quinn Hillyer's tough piece -- especially on ethics -- in The American Spectator. (Huckabee's campaign responded here.)
Now, John Fund chronicles the views of various "movement" conservatives on the "other Man from Hope," including stalwarts such as Phyllis Schlafly. And Pat Toomey of the Club For Growth is appalled even about the idea of Huckabee as a VP pick (an idea RT helped float a few weeks back).
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. It's also interesting, to say the least, to wonder how it is that all of these articles appear at about the same time. One would think that there was some sort of coordinated feeding of unflattering stories about Huckabee.
Nah, couldn't be that, right?
I'm not exactly carrying a particular brief for Huckabee, but, except perhaps for Ron Paul, has there been nearly as much concentrated insta-piling on of a candidate who is still in single digits nationally? And, yeah, his line in the debate last week about how most of the signers of the Constitution were clergymen was seriously dumb. But, that just underscores my point even more: Is there so much to fear from Mike Huckabee that there is suddenly a conservative swarm against him?
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It started early this week with this rather sardonic Rich Lowry column, with cool lines like,
Without organization, money or an agenda, Huckabee is very unlikely to win the nomination. A presidential candidate has to be more than a performer. As one top social conservative says, He’s not running for Toastmasters.”No offense, Rich, but maybe I missed where the other GOP candidates had an "agenda" that was that different from each other.
Anyway, that was followed by Quinn Hillyer's tough piece -- especially on ethics -- in The American Spectator. (Huckabee's campaign responded here.)
Now, John Fund chronicles the views of various "movement" conservatives on the "other Man from Hope," including stalwarts such as Phyllis Schlafly. And Pat Toomey of the Club For Growth is appalled even about the idea of Huckabee as a VP pick (an idea RT helped float a few weeks back).
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. It's also interesting, to say the least, to wonder how it is that all of these articles appear at about the same time. One would think that there was some sort of coordinated feeding of unflattering stories about Huckabee.
Nah, couldn't be that, right?
I'm not exactly carrying a particular brief for Huckabee, but, except perhaps for Ron Paul, has there been nearly as much concentrated insta-piling on of a candidate who is still in single digits nationally? And, yeah, his line in the debate last week about how most of the signers of the Constitution were clergymen was seriously dumb. But, that just underscores my point even more: Is there so much to fear from Mike Huckabee that there is suddenly a conservative swarm against him?
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee
Friday, October 19, 2007
Be Like Mike
|Tuesday, October 09, 2007
The Gospel of Paul (and Mike)
Some praise for Ron Paul from a relatively surprising source -- our friends at National Review Online, who have generally been pretty contemptuous of Paul's efforts.
Dave Kopel shares his experience with Paul at the Gun Rights Policy Conference:
Paul is doing better than Huckabee in fundraising (and, seemingly, in nationwide enthusiasm) -- but both are far behind the frontrunners in the polls.
Neither really has a chance of becoming the GOP nominee. Huckabee has a 50-50 chance of being the VP pick (greater if Giuliani is at the top of the ticket).
Still, today's debate, the first with the full, set-in-stone, GOP field may cause some movement. Huckabee has crept up to third place in Iowa ahead of Giuliani and Paul's money can produce some ads that can resonate with independent-minded, gun-loving New Hampshire.
Stay tuned.
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Dave Kopel shares his experience with Paul at the Gun Rights Policy Conference:
Last Saturday night, at the buffet dinner and reception, the speaker was Ron Paul. The difference between Paul as a speaker in 1988 and in 2007 was startling. In 1988, he was perfectly competent. This time he was electrifying. In 1988, his campaign could do little more than leave some literature on a table. This time, he had volunteers to hand out literature, including (for the recipient audience) devastating material on Romney and Thompson. (Included among the materials distributed were Romney’s gubernatorial signing statement of the Massachusetts ban on so-called ““assault weapons,”“ and a copy of Sen. Russ Feingold’s letter to Senator Thompson after the passage of McCain-Feingold, with Feingold’s handwritten thanks, claiming that the bill never could have passed without Thompson’s help.)Kopel sounds like Huckabee is his second "favorite" among the GOP field. That's true for me as well.
Most impressive, however, was the large crowd of young people who showed up to hear Paul’s speech. They were enthused and energized, many of them sporting Ron Paul Revolution t-shirts. (The shirts are very clever, since they use “Revolution” to also say ““LOVE”,” which makes revolution seem a lot nicer.)
I did a lot of work in the Gary Hart campaign in 1983-84, while I was at the University of Michigan’s Law School. In terms of support from young volunteers, Paul is miles ahead of where Hart was before the Iowa caucus. After Hart finished second in Iowa, and then won New Hampshire, his campaign attracted a huge number of students, but not before. Paul, on the other hand, has what appears to be a staunch contingent of young supporters already.
The volunteers loved Paul’s speech, of course, and so did the large majority of the rest of the GRPC crowd. The GRPC activists are very wary of politicians whose pro-gun positions are a matter of convenience or calculation, rather than sincere dedication to the Constitution. The top tier of the Republican field obviously has a problem with candidates whose 2007 positions on guns or other issues are inconsistent with some of their past actions. You have to get down to Mike Huckabee before you can find a candidate who doesn’t have a consistency problem. (Huckabee’s record on the Second Amendment is perfect, and his statements clearly prove that he understands and believes in the issue, and isn’t just reciting platitudes and talking points.)
Paul is doing better than Huckabee in fundraising (and, seemingly, in nationwide enthusiasm) -- but both are far behind the frontrunners in the polls.
Neither really has a chance of becoming the GOP nominee. Huckabee has a 50-50 chance of being the VP pick (greater if Giuliani is at the top of the ticket).
Still, today's debate, the first with the full, set-in-stone, GOP field may cause some movement. Huckabee has crept up to third place in Iowa ahead of Giuliani and Paul's money can produce some ads that can resonate with independent-minded, gun-loving New Hampshire.
Stay tuned.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul
Friday, August 24, 2007
Maher-ed For Life
My personal favorite political talk show returns on HBO tonight. That would be "Real Time With Bill Maher." One might not agree with Maher's politics (he's basically a libertarian-leaning atheist). He's anti-Republican, but is hardly a knee-jerk liberal -- especially when it comes to racial and sexual political correctness.
He also has a pretty good panel and invariably gives his Republican and conservative guests time to make their case (and balances the one-on-one guests at the top of the show pretty well). Tonight, Dick Cheney's favorite writer, Stephen Hayes and Arkansas' second-favorite son, Mike Huckabee are in the mix.
Anyway, it's at 11:00 p.m. tonight and then repeats frequently over the next few days.
And, no, this is NOT a paid ad!
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He also has a pretty good panel and invariably gives his Republican and conservative guests time to make their case (and balances the one-on-one guests at the top of the show pretty well). Tonight, Dick Cheney's favorite writer, Stephen Hayes and Arkansas' second-favorite son, Mike Huckabee are in the mix.
Anyway, it's at 11:00 p.m. tonight and then repeats frequently over the next few days.
And, no, this is NOT a paid ad!
Labels: Bill Maher, Mike Huckabee
Monday, August 20, 2007
Hope Springs Eternal
Arkansas boys hang together.
Another point that could be made about Clinton: Like Reagan and unlike either the incumbent president OR the woman who hopes to succeed him, he didn't get a special hand-up into the political elite by birth or marriage.
He did it the "modern" old-fashioned way: He earned it.
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Another point that could be made about Clinton: Like Reagan and unlike either the incumbent president OR the woman who hopes to succeed him, he didn't get a special hand-up into the political elite by birth or marriage.
He did it the "modern" old-fashioned way: He earned it.
Labels: Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee
Monday, August 13, 2007
Veep Heart Huckabee?
I agree with Andrew Sullivan. With his surprise second-place showing, Mike Huckabee should be the go-to guy for the GOP vice-presidential nod.
Meanwhile, nobody hearts Tommy, and so the "other Thompson" returns to the land of the cheeseheads.
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Meanwhile, nobody hearts Tommy, and so the "other Thompson" returns to the land of the cheeseheads.
Labels: GOP 2008 President, Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson
